Paolo VILLANI | EXTREME EVENT FORECASTING: STATISTICAL, HYDRAULIC AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MODELS
Paolo VILLANI EXTREME EVENT FORECASTING: STATISTICAL, HYDRAULIC AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MODELS
| 8862000007 | |
| DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING | |
| Corso di Dottorato (D.M.226/2021) | |
| SYSTEMS AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, MOBILITY AND THE TERRITORY | |
| 2023/2024 |
| OBBLIGATORIO | |
| YEAR OF COURSE 1 | |
| YEAR OF DIDACTIC SYSTEM 2023 | |
| FULL ACADEMIC YEAR |
| SSD | CFU | HOURS | ACTIVITY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICAR/02 | 3 | 21 | LESSONS |
| Objectives | |
|---|---|
| GENERAL OBJECTIVE THE TEACHING AIMS AT PROVIDING KNOWLEDGE RELATED TO: - GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MAPPING TECHNIQUES AND PROCEDURES IN ORDER TO SUPPORT ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING AND DESIGN IN ACCORDANCE WITH EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL GUIDELINES ON ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS. - PHYSICAL PHENOMENA LINKED TO FLOOD RISK, IN PARTICULAR WITH REFERENCE TO THE FOLLOWING TOPICS: I) ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD RISK FROM MEASURED HISTORICAL DATA AVAILABLE IN THE LAST DECADES AS WELL AS FROM GEOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS OF PALEOFLOODS FOR THE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF EXTRAORDINARY EXTREME EVENTS. II) PROBABILISTIC PLANNING OF FLOOD DEFENSE ACTIVITIES AND STRUCTURES. III) DESIGN OF REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEMS. KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT THE STUDENT WILL UNDERSTAND THE PHENOMENA AND OBJECTIVES LINKED TO THE DIFFERENT PHASES OF LONG- AND SHORT-TERM RISK MANAGEMENT AS WELL AS THE TERMINOLOGY OF GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MAPPING, CONCEPTUAL, LOGICAL, AND PHYSICAL MODELS OF THE CARTOGRAPHIC REPRESENTATION OF THE LANDSCAPE AND HAZARD ALSO WITHIN INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH. APPLYING KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT THE STUDENT WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE USEFUL MAPPING MODELS FOR CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PURPOSES ACCORDING TO CODIFIED CONVENTIONAL STANDARDS (NATIONAL AND EUROPEAN GUIDELINES) AND TO SOLVE SOME OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS FOR PLANNING HYDRAULIC RISK MITIGATION STRUCTURES AND SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. JUDGEMENT THE STUDENT WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE THE MOST APPROPRIATE METHODS FOR LANDSCAPE REPRESENTATION IN A GIS ENVIRONMENT AND TO CHOOSE THE METHOD FOR THE CONTEXT EXAMINED. FURTHERMORE, THE STUDENT WILL BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY THE MOST APPROPRIATE METHODS TO CORRECTLY PROCEED WITH THE RESOLUTION OF VARIOUS HYDRAULIC PROBLEMS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER CIVIL INFRASTRUCTURES AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECOSYSTEMS. COMMUNICATION THE STUDENT WILL BE ABLE TO EXPOSE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A PROJECT BY HIGHLIGHTING THE FUNCTIONAL LINKS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT COMPONENTS. THEY WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO WORK IN GROUPS AND ORALLY PRESENT TOPICS RELATED TO THE TOPICS COVERED IN THE TEACHING. LEARNING SKILLS THE STUDENT WILL BE ABLE TO APPLY THE KNOWLEDGE ACQUIRED TO CONTEXTS DIFFERENT FROM THOSE PRESENTED DURING THE TEACHING AND TO DEEPEN INTO THE TOPICS COVERED USING MATERIALS OTHER THAN THOSE PROPOSED. FURTHERMORE, THE STUDENT WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUOUSLY UPDATE HIS KNOWLEDGE, USING TECHNICAL AND SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE AND IT RESOURCES. |
| Prerequisites | |
|---|---|
| BASIC KNOWLEDGE OF HYDRAULIC AND HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR THE DESIGN OF HYDRAULIC RISK MITIGATION ACTIONS. |
| Contents | |
|---|---|
| - PRINCIPLES OF RISK ANALYSIS AND SYSTEM RELIABILITY. - INTRODUCTION TO BAYESIAN FILTERS; THE KALMAN FILTER. - A GENERAL THEORY OF WARNING SYSTEMS; MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS FOR FLOODS. - PERFORMANCE OF MONITORING, FORECAST AND DECISION STAGES, ELEMENTS FOR THE DESIGN OF A SYSTEM WITH CONTROLLED DIAGNOSTIC AND RELIABILITY CAPACITIES. - ELEMENTS FOR EVALUATING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A FLOOD AND THE RESULTING DAMAGE. - RISK-BASED APPROACH FOR THE DESIGN OF HYDRAULIC RISK MITIGATION STRUCTURES. - NATURE AND AIMS OF GEOMORPHOLOGY AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MAPPING, AND ITS APPLICATIONS IN THE MULTISCALE HAZARD ASSESSMENT, PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT. - GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MAPPING APPLICATIONS: FROM PREPARING BASE MAP AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MAP PROJECT IN MULTIPLE HAZARD ANALYSIS, TO HILLSLOPE AND FLUVIAL LANDFORM IDENTIFICATION, RECOGNITION, AND MAPPING. - REAL APPLICATIONS TO DIGITAL GEOMORPHOLOGICAL MAPPING IN MULTIPLE HAZARD ANALYSIS AND LANDSLIDE AND FLUVIAL HAZARD ZONATION. - GEOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS OF PALEOFLOODS AND POSSIBLE METHODS FOR INTEGRATING THEM INTO THE FREQUENCY ANALYZES OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREME EVENTS. |
| Teaching Methods | |
|---|---|
| THE LESSONS INCLUDE A THEORETICAL PART (60%), CLASSROOM EXERCISES (20%) AND FIELD TRIPS (20%). |
| Verification of learning | |
|---|---|
| THE FINAL TEST CONSISTS OF A WRITTEN EXAM, WHICH WILL FOCUS ON THE THEORETICAL PART AND THE APPLICATION PART OF THE MODULES PRESENTED DURING THE LESSONS. THIS PAPER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN AN INDIVIDUAL ORAL INTERVIEW, WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW TO VERIFY THE SKILLS RELATED TO THE DUBLIN DESCRIPTORS 2, 3-5 (INDEPENDENCE OF JUDGEMENT, COMMUNICATION SKILLS AND LEARNING ABILITY). |
| Texts | |
|---|---|
| LECTURE NOTES DISTRIBUTED DURING LESSONS. |
| More Information | |
|---|---|
| RECOMMENDED TEXTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: S.N., JONKMAN AND T. SCHWECKENDIEK, DEVELOPMENTS IN LEVEE RELIABILITY AND FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS IN THE NETHERLANDS, IN V T. SCHWECKENDIEK ET AL. (EDS.), GEOTECHNICAL SAFETY AND RISK, 50-60, ROTTERDAM, 2015, HTTP://RESOLVER.TUDELFT.NL/UUID:A98E6953-CF11-4E79-8334-D3BF5CE9FAD3 R. KRZYSZTOFOWICZ, A THEORY OF FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS, WATER RESOUR. RES., 29 (12), 3981-3994, 1993. HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.1029/93WR00961 |
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